The floods have caused death, destruction, and misery on a scale never seen before in Pakistan’s history. Unlike the 2005 earthquake in the Northern Areas, the flood of 2010 has spread misery equally in every part of the country. The unprecedented flooding has already affected the lives of approximately 14 million people by wiping out their modest livelihoods and homes, and already killing 1600 people. Just to put things in perspective the destruction caused by the floods has been more than the Tsunami, the earthquake in Pakistan, and the recent earthquake in Haiti combined. The aftermath of this flood promises to be even more deadly. Diseases caused by no shelter, lack of clean drinking water, no food, and unsanitary living conditions are going to take this death toll up. Billions of dollars worth of infrastructure has been wiped out, and according to the Ministry of Agriculture, one billion dollars worth of crops have been destroyed. Pakistan will feel the impact of these floods for years to come.
For all the misery that has been piled on ordinary Pakistanis by this horrific flooding, ordinary Pakistanis from unaffected areas have risen to help their fellow citizens by donating generously, volunteering themselves, and helping to organize relief supplies to the affected areas. Pakistanis are and have always been one of the most generous people on this planet, and I am hoping, just as they helped with relief during the 2005 earthquake, this time too they will do the needful. There has been a lot of criticism of how the government has handled the flooding. Some of it is fair while some of it is not. President Zardari’s joyride to London and France will be taught in universities as a case study of how not to act in a crisis. The president finally visited Sukkur exactly two weeks after the floods hit Pakistan. It was two weeks too late. But some Pakistanis have criticized the shortcomings of the government response to the flood which is not only unfair but inaccurate. The scale of this disaster is gargantuan by any yardstick and would have left any government of the world staggering let alone the Pakistani state. True we have invested very little over the years in civilian institutions which can respond to such disasters but these shortcomings have taken decades to manifest themselves today. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) set up after the 2005 earthquake has been at the forefront of the relief efforts. Sniping at political opponents in such grim times is the last thing Pakistan needs.
What Pakistan needs right now is planning, strategy, and execution. We need to plan for the next few years, not something the Pakistani state has been exemplary at. Roti, Kapra, aur Makan is what the PPP government will need to provide. After the fires which engulfed Russia, their government banned the export of wheat. Pakistan should follow suit and ban the export of any and all edibles. October is not that far away and the government needs to start thinking about ensuring shelter in the Northern Areas because of the extreme winters there. We also need to think about how we’re going to pay for the destroyed and damaged infrastructure without which vital aid cannot be deployed. Sure international commitments have come through but commitments do not always translate into cash in the bank. Hafeez Shaikh will have the formidable task of figuring out how to pay for a lot of things with money the government doesn’t have. This can be an opportunity to widen the tax base and ensure our taxation system moves towards a progressive one rather than the current regressive system which relies on indirect taxes. Food inflation had already been battering Pakistanis and it’s going to get exponentially worse in the months to come. If this government cannot bring the prices of essentials down and fast it’s going to see food riots and unrest throughout the country.
There’s also the political calculus of this flood to consider. The PPP government has dodged every bullet sent its way till date. But that was before the floods. Political survival for the PPP is going to depend on how well it can respond to the floods and how it ensures the delivery of aid to people who need it most. So far people are just shell-shocked at losing everything they had. Given its track record the government needs to do a lot more. Hina Rabbani Khar’s visit to the affected areas didn’t go so well after her car got mobbed and she had to make an undignified exit. Hungry and angry mobs don’t make the ideal constituents. Solid administrators like Shahbaz Sharif have been ensuring that they are everywhere doing what good leaders do.
The Pakistan Army has gained the most by the floods. Images of army helicopters, soldiers, trucks, and the top army brass personally overseeing relief and rescue operations are ensuring that Army’s brand equity is shooting up. The Pakistan Army has the equipment, the manpower, and the expertise to go to areas where no one else can. They are also bridging the trust deficit when it comes to delivering relief supplies. A lot of ordinary people have showed their apprehension at giving money to the Prime Ministers’ Relief Fund but are more than ready to give to the Pakistan Army’s relief efforts. This should worry the civilian government immensely and they should ensure that there is transparency in the relief efforts and severe punishments for those who wish to profit from this disaster. Failure to do so will result in “structural” changes that will set us back a few decades politically.
